A World Without The Big 12 Could Look Like This
The conference shuffle is back.
Word got out this week that Texas and Oklahoma are looking to move to the SEC and the ripple effect wouldn’t just be big. It would be a tsunami for universities all over the country. If we learned anything from the last go round a decade ago, it’s this. You better find a dance partner quick or you’ll be left out of the College Football Playoff party. I have a hard time seeing the Big 12 survive this, so let’s imagine a dissolved conference before we try to piece it back together.
The best part of the whole thing is the possibilities. The worst part is the geographical absurdity. San Diego State didn’t belong in the Big East. They ended up staying put.
So let’s look at the logical scenarios of where the rest of the Big 12 will fall.
BIG TEN
Kansas is already talking to the league. This is the smartest move for KU. Obvious financial windfall from BTN. Football can’t get worse, but the Big Ten West is, well, meh, and at least there’s a TV partner that will put up with you every week. The basketball impact would be electric. How about Bill Self going to Champaign once a year to face the Illini? Kansas upgrades its schedule immediately. Being a member of the Association of American Universities matters here and the Big Ten knows KU is in the elite academic group.
The only question is who goes with. KU can’t go solo because the Big Ten won’t stop at 15 schools. Iowa State makes the most geographical sense, but the Big Ten is more interest in it’s television footprint. The Cyclones would be in a really tough spot if the Big Ten didn’t invite them. Where would they go? Not the Pac 12. Too far west. Folks in Ames better hope they get a call from the Big Ten, because if not, Cyclone fans are looking at years in the AAC or Mountain West Conference.
Not exactly what they had in mind after winning the Fiesta Bowl.
PAC 12
This is where the directional silliness of the whole thing gets strange. However, this could be the best thing to happen to the Pac 12. Two teams to help the league get to the Pac 14. TCU and Oklahoma State are the first come to mind. Solid football competition. Travel partners in non revenue sports. The league picks up Oklahoma City and Dallas in terms of television markets. Lingering is Texas Tech and that may set up a tough in-state fight to see who heads west. Then again, you add all three and Houston and the road to the CFP in the Pac 16 could go through the Central Time Zone every year.
What about Boise State or San Diego State? You might not think much of New Mexico, but the Lobos run that state and when you add in Albuquerque’s TV size (DMA #46), it’s a safe pick up and all of a sudden “The Pit” becomes a hell of a hoops venue again.
All eyes will shift west to see which teams from the east head that way.
ACC
West Virginia would have an ideal landing spot, but the problem here is Notre Dame. The Mountaineers create a 16-team league except in football. Two divisions (8 and 7) would be messy scheduling. Another school would have to go with. Would that be Oklahoma State? Could it even be Central Florida? Start the Cincinnati and Memphis rumors as well. If the ACC doesn’t extend an offer, it’s uncertain where West Virginia would go.
Two schools would make the Big Ten a 16-team league, but West Virginia wouldn’t expand the league’s footprint the way KU and Iowa State might. For now, we’ll imagine rivalry battles with UVA and a Big East style schedule with two backyard brawls in hoops every season.
AAC
Baylor might end up here. Kansas State might end up here (or the Mountain West). The important thing to remember is that an expanded CFP opens the door for a guaranteed spot for the Group of Five. These two programs could jump right to the top of the list and compete every year. Could be a better sell for recruits.
Basketball? All the Bears have to do is look at the team they beat in the 2021 National Championship game in Indianapolis. Gonzaga has never needed a power league and the Bears could be among the 3 or 4 AAC teams that are offered bids. Wichita State and Baylor sounds fun twice a year too.
BIG 12
If the league somehow in a miraculous way manages to keep all eight schools in place, the obvious additions to the league start with Houston. Cincinnati and Memphis both get a phone call. However, the league wants to get serious about sticking together, they try to pry Arizona and Arizona State into the league. The television cash cow (Pac 12 Networks) has not brought in anything close to the other leagues. Bringing in the Phoenix television market (DMA #11) would be a huge blow to the west coast and force the Pac 12 into the same shuffle conversation.
Regardless of how this all shakes out, one thing is for sure. The fast and furious phone calls are already happening. We’ll see what schools are ready to meet the moment and those that didn’t have a plan in place.
